The growth of the spread and the ‘hawk’ ECB push up the rates on new mortgages which will approach 2% in May. Even if the fixed rate mortgages are already above this threshold. This is what emerges from the monthly ABI report which takes into account the two types. In detail, last month there was an increase in average rates to 1.93% against 1.81% in April. In simulations on search engines, however, fixed-rate mortgages are already hovering between 2.3 and 2.8%, with peaks even over 3%. The variables are still just above 1%, but this is a ‘gap’ destined to close quickly given the acceleration of Frankfurt and the Fed in the monetary tightening which also affects the reference market rates. For Italian families, the impact will in any case be limited compared to what has been seen in previous years. In fact, 85% of mortgages, underlines the deputy director of ABI Gianfranco Torriero, are at a fixed rate. It is clear that instead those who have a variable rate or those who are preparing to subscribe to one will have to suffer the increases. The market is still vital. Also thanks to the rules in favor of young people under 36, the purchase of the first houses shows growing trends.

Again the ABI, which cites data from the Bank of Italy, notes that out of total loans to households (+ 3.9%), the growth of mortgages is stable (+ 5.2%). For Italian banks, however, the monetary tightening of the ECB has both positive and negative elements. The growth in government bond yields affects the securities portfolio but to a limited extent given that, after the negative experience of the sovereign debt crisis, only one third is measured at fair value and therefore the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Credit institutions will therefore be less affected by debt tensions and, moreover, they are in better conditions overall and with a lower share of non-performing loans. According to ABI data, bad loans fell to 16.7 billion in April and, moreover, the ratio with respect to total loans stood at 0.95% (it was 1.15% in April 2021). On June 28, the proposal for a legislative intervention on the subject of bad loans by the commission of inquiry on banks will arrive. However, the prudence of families and businesses remains. Deposits, albeit slightly slowing down, recorded a trend change of + 4.9% compared to + 5.5% in the previous month and + 6.2% in May 2021 “with an increase in absolute value on an annual basis of 87 billion euros, bringing the amount of deposits to 1,861.7 billion “.

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