The economic fundamentals of Italy do not “justify” a spread above 200 points but below 150. This was stated by the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco in a speech Analysis: Institutional Forum “in Milan.” The marked increase in spreads on government bonds recorded in Italy and Greece but also, to a lesser extent, in the other euro area countries is a sign of concern . These are tensions that do not seem to be explained by the trend of the macroeconomic situation “.
According to the newspapers, “yesterday was an emergency meeting of the ECB, but there is no panic”, said Visco. “Perhaps there was an emergency meeting for the pandemic – he explained – there was total uncertainty there at the time and the markets intervened with Pepp”. “For several months – explained Visco – inflation has been on the rise globally and is the first result of energy prices on international markets with different characteristics for geographical areas”. “There is also the problem of gas, which is fundamental for the US and European economies,” he added. “While gas has grown from 10 to 30 dollars per MWh since the beginning of the pandemic, in Europe the average is 80 euros per MWh, with peaks of 200 with a substantial difference”.
In Europe “we have many governments and only one central bank. The central bank will always be the scapegoat for all the ills of individual countries. On this front, to improve monetary policy, I think it is essential to have a central counterpart”, added Visco, reiterating. his preference for a true fiscal union. “It will take time but it is fundamental”, “We do not know if Europe will become a federation but we must make progress” he added.
Bank of Italy continues to “monitor the trend of expectations on the future evolution of official rates”. He stressed that “the short-term real rate curve has shown a strong upward shift in recent days”. “A signal – explained the Governor – which indicates a widespread perception of a particularly hawkish orientation (hawk, ed) by the ECB”. However, according to Visco “this perception is not, in my opinion, appropriate, given the attention we will continue to place on the evolution of the economic situation, which is currently still very uncertain”.
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