The Earth is about to pass an important stage in its long existence. According to the latest demographic data from the United Nations (UN), published on Monday 11 July, on the occasion of World Population Day, the the planet will be occupied by eight billion people as of November 15th. Human beings have never been so numerous. This is one billion more than in 2010. Two billion more than in 1998. And five and a half billion more than in 1950.

The population of the Earth continues to grow and there are only those “One in two chance” that the trend should be reversed before the end of the century. Indeed, demographers in the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs consider it “95% safe” the probability that we will be between 8.9 and 12.4 billion in 2100. The threshold of ten billion could be reached as early as 2059 and then stabilize, according to a scenario “medium”about 10.4 billion humans in the 1980s.

Therefore, reaching a maximum plateau would happen sooner than expected. “This is a particularly interesting element, because, in its latest report, published three years ago, the UN provided for demographic stabilization only during the 22ndAnd century “, points out Gilles Pison, professor at the National Museum of Natural History and scientific advisor to the National Institute of Demographic Studies, in Paris. This scenario is explained “mainly” from the fact that every woman gives birth to fewer and fewer children, this expert points out: from the current 2.3, the fertility rate could drop to 1.8 in 2100, marking “The end of the generational change”.

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Awaited eagerly on the estimate of the demographic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic that has hit the planet in the past two years, the United Nations has collaborated with the World Health Organization to draw up a new assessment. While in November 2021 the Anglo-Saxon press anticipated the figure of 17 million deaths, the two international institutions now estimate that “The excess mortality associated with the pandemic reached 14.9 million people in the period between 1uh January 2020 and December 31 2021 “. They therefore confirm that the reality could correspond “Almost three times the number of officially declared deaths”that many scientists have been speculating for about a year.

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