The sky will experience traffic jams. The number of planes in the world is expected to double in the next 20 years due to the growth of global air traffic but also the need for companies to replace their planes with cheaper planes, according to Airbus.
The need is estimated at 39,490 new passenger and cargo aircraft by 2041, bringing the world fleet to 46,930 aircraft, up from 22,880 in 2020, the European aircraft manufacturer estimated Monday in its market forecast just days before the Farnborough Airshow. in the UK.
End of the impact of Covid-19 by 2025
This estimate is in line with the previous one (39,020 new aircraft) to which Airbus delivered in November 2021. However, the European aircraft manufacturer has slightly lowered, from 3.9 to 3.6%, the average annual traffic growth. . It is more cautious than rival Boeing, which predicts the need for 43,610 new deliveries. The American giant must publish its updated forecasts on Sunday.
Despite the collapse in global air traffic, which is expected to return to the level of 2019 only between 2023 and 2025, the Covid-19 pandemic will therefore have no long-term impact on the need for new aircraft. If 60% of future deliveries are to be used to cope with the increase in traffic (24,000 aircraft), 40%, or 15,400, is intended to replace aircraft currently in service with aircraft that consume less fuel.
“Net zero emissions” of CO2 by 2050
The latest devices save 15 to 20% on kerosene consumption, and therefore much lower CO2 emissions than the previous generation. A strong argument for the aviation sector, under pressure to reduce its environmental footprint and which is committed to “net zero emissions” of CO2 by 2050.
The main growth areas expected are Asia-Pacific, which should concentrate 23% of new aircraft deliveries, ahead of China (21%), Europe (21%) and North America (18%).
About 80% of the need for new aircraft is for single-aisle aircraft (type A320 or Boeing 737), 20% for long-haul (A330, A350, B787, B777). The need for cargo aircraft is expected to be 2,440 aircraft, which is 900 more than those currently driven in particular by the development of online commerce.
According to Airbus, the scale of the need justifies its intention to increase production of A320 family aircraft to 75 aircraft per month in 2025, up from just over 45 today. Airbus’s order book stood at 7,046 aircraft at the end of June, of which 5,829 are from the A320 family, giving it many years of production.
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